M ay 2 01 1 Total variation approximation for quasi - equilibrium distributions , II

Quasi-stationary distributions, as discussed by Darroch & Seneta (1965), have been used in biology to describe the steady state behaviour of population models which, while eventually certain to become extinct, nevertheless maintain an apparent stochastic equilibrium for long periods. These distributions have some drawbacks: they need not exist, nor be unique, and their calculation can present problems. In an earlier paper, we gave biologically plausible conditions under which the quasi-stationary distribution is unique, and can be closely approximated by distributions that are simple to compute. In this paper, we consider conditions under which the quasi-stationary distribution, if it exists, need not be unique, but an apparent stochastic equilibrium can nonetheless be identified and computed; we call such a distribution a quasi-equilibrium distribution.